Rigetti stock (NASDAQ: RGTI) has produced one of the market’s most dramatic runs, up roughly 5,000% over the past year, and a growing number of Wall Street analysts are arguing the stock’s momentum can continue, even after the spectacular gains.
Their bullish case rests on accelerating commercial traction, fresh government work, and what they say is improving execution on Rigetti’s hardware roadmap.
Rigetti stock: Why are analysts bullish?
Analysts point to concrete commercial milestones as the key justification for renewed optimism.
Benchmark’s David Williams, who recently raised his price target sharply, framed the rally as a response to clearer signs that Rigetti is moving from lab demonstrations toward paying customers, citing multi-system orders and increasing contract wins as evidence that the company’s quantum hardware is finding commercial buyers.
Williams argues that these developments, combined with the company’s cash runway, reduce near-term funding risk and support a higher valuation.
The US Air Force contract, a roughly $5.8 million, multi-year engagement to help develop a quantum network, is frequently cited by analysts as both a revenue and credibility catalyst, signaling institutional interest beyond research labs and into applied programs.
Industry watchers say government engagement helps validate Rigetti’s technology and can open doors to further institutional customers.
Risk-reward still polarized
Yet the street is not unanimous.
Aggregated data show a wide range of price targets and a mixed downside/upside picture: some services calculate a consensus target well below recent prices, reflecting caution about valuation and the still-early commercial economics of quantum computing.
One commonly cited consensus places the 12-month target roughly in the high-$20s, implying material downside from current levels for more cautious investors.
Those figures underpin the counterargument: that much of the upside may already be priced in, and that short-term returns will hinge on continued execution and proof of sustainable revenue growth.
Analysts who remain constructive emphasize Rigetti’s improving balance sheet.
After a mid-year capital raise, the firm reported a cash position large enough, in their view, to fund R&D and early commercialization efforts, a detail bulls say gives management the flexibility to scale systems and fulfill orders without immediate dilution.
Critics counter that quantum remains an inherently uncertain technology with long timelines to meaningful profit, and that any setback on fidelity, manufacturing, or customer adoption could quickly reset expectations.
For investors, the takeaway is straightforward: the bull case is now rooted in tangible milestones, purchase orders, government contracts, and analyst upgrades, rather than pure speculation.
But the presence of both elevated price targets and lower consensus estimates warns that risk is polarized.
Buyers should weigh a longer time horizon and a tolerance for volatile drawdowns if they want exposure to what analysts describe as a nascent but fast-moving quantum story.
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