Dow futures edged higher on Thursday, showing investors are feeling pretty decent about what’s coming down the pipeline. The futures were up around 86 points, about 0.2% as traders positioned themselves ahead of some key economic reports dropping today.
Everyone’s basically waiting to see the latest unemployment numbers and pending home sales data, which should give us a better read on how the economy’s actually doing.
The mood seems cautiously optimistic, helped along by tech stocks continuing to hold their ground and this general feeling that the US economy is chugging along at a steady pace.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. Today’s shaping up to be one of those data-heavy days that actually matter, with a bunch of economic reports that could move markets in a real way.
The big ticket item is the second GDP estimate for Q2, which should give us a much clearer picture of whether America’s economic recovery has real staying power.
But that’s not all. We’re also getting the preliminary Corporate Profits reading, fresh jobless claims data (both initial and continuing), and updates on how much consumers are actually spending and earning.
2. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming corporate profits data, as these figures will provide crucial insights into the underlying health of the American economy.
Companies have navigated significant challenges throughout the year, including volatile demand patterns, fluctuating commodity prices, and persistent wage pressures.
The profit trends emerging from this data will serve as a key indicator of how effectively businesses have managed these headwinds.
Weak profit growth or an unexpected contraction could substantially dampen expectations for the remainder of 2025, while strong earnings would reinforce the positive GDP figures already reported.
Such robust performance would strengthen confidence in the economic recovery’s sustainability.
3. This week’s jobless claims will give investors another check on how sturdy the US labor market really is. Economists are looking for initial claims to tick up slightly to about 235,000 from 230,000 last week, with continuing claims holding just under two million.
The numbers matter as they feed directly into Fed thinking, household spending power, and earnings outlooks.
Wage growth looks steady but not spectacular, and markets will be quick to react if the data shows layoffs creeping higher or the slowdown arriving faster than expected.
4. The home sales numbers are going to tell us a lot about where the housing market is actually headed, and that matters more than usual given how much mortgage rates have been bouncing around lately.
Economists are penciling in a small monthly decline of 0.8% and a bigger year-over-year drop of 2.8%.
5. Major Gulf markets are already positioning themselves ahead of the US economic releases, while oil, natural gas, and other key commodities continue their recent volatile streak.
Energy traders know that any surprises in these numbers can quickly spill over into energy stocks and shift the entire inflation narrative.
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